Let the Blames Begin

[quasigeostrophy]

*sigh*

I’m more than a little annoyed at some of the comments I’ve been seeing today about the stage accident at the Indiana State Fair last night. Governor Mitch Daniels, with whom I’ve disagreed many times over the years about various policy decisions and politics, addressed the situation fairly well, IMHO. At a press conference this morning, he was speaking without a prepared speech, and I’ve seen much venom directed at him about his comment that the wind gust that took down the stage canopy was a “fluke” and “unpredictable”. I don’t think these critics are being fair and thinking about the entire situation and context, because they’re forgetting that in the same press conference, Daniels and others acknowledged the Indianapolis National Weather Service office for being right about their forecast time for the warned storm.

According to the timeline of events released by the Indiana State Police and Indiana State Fair, the area had been under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch since 5:57pm. Regular updates were being obtained all evening from the local NWS office. At 8:00pm, “the National Weather Service was contacted a fourth time by Indiana State Fair Staff for a weather update. NWS advised the storm would arrive at the fairgrounds at approximately 9:15pm. The storm would contain small hail and 40 mph winds.” Sara Bareilles, the opening act on the stage, finished her performance around 8:30pm, at the time additional Indiana State Police personnel arrived at the grandstand in order to assist onsite Indiana State Police personnel and ESG Security in evacuation of concert attendees. At 8:39pm, the National Weather Service issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Marion County:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
EASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA…
HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA…
HENDRICKS COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA…
MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA…
NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA…
EAST CENTRAL PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA…

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* AT 835 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL…AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF ZIONSVILLE TO
GREENCASTLE…AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR…
SHERIDAN…PITTSBORO AND COATESVILLE AROUND 845 PM EDT…
DANVILLE AND AMO AROUND 850 PM EDT…
BELLE UNION…ZIONSVILLE…STILESVILLE AND BROWNSBURG AROUND 855 PM EDT…
LITTLE POINT…EMINENCE…WESTFIELD AND CLAYTON AROUND 900 PM EDT…
MORSE RESERVOIR AND EAGLE CREEK RESERVOIR AROUND 905 PM EDT…

I was watching the storm on radar. The NWS communications with the Indiana State Fair were accurate. The storm on radar didn’t reach the fairgrounds until several minutes after 9:00pm. A preliminary announcement was made by the concert MC at 8:45pm, advising the concert attendees that severe weather was moving into the area. The announcement includes instructions on how and where to seek shelter, and three buildings outside the grandstand were open and available. Four minutes after the announcement, the canopy collapsed.

What about the gust front? That’s probably the source of the wind gust that did the damage. It was ahead of the storm as seen on radar, why wasn’t it accounted for? Well, such an outflow from a storm, caused by the storm’s downdraft (the air underneath has to go somewhere!) can be difficult to see on radar. In the Great Plains, they can often be seen as a thin line ahead of the main storm. Here in Indiana, though, where cloud bases are lower, trees are more prevalent, and especially in cities where permanent structures will interfere with surface winds, they can be difficult to see.

So, I sympathize with calling this wind a “fluke” in the sense that it was “unpredictable” from a standpoint of giving it an exact time and location. Some critics are calling not only Daniels a “liar”, but for the Indiana State Fair and the concert promoter to be held fully accountable for the deaths, injuries, and damage. Sorry, but I call “B.S.” on that. They gave announcements ahead of time that included instructions for where to go for safety. Many people heeded. But at the end of the day, adults are also responsible for their own safety. And here’s the danger in second-guessing. Had the Fair announced evacuation earlier and/or mandatory, either it would have been ignored by even more people, or it would erode confidence in the organization under future similar circumstances when the storm didn’t arrive quickly. We have the same problem with radar-indicated tornado warnings, and I’m a stickler for heeding those, even if a tornado has not been sighted and confirmed.

It’s very easy to say what should have happened when the event is in the past and/or one was not in attendance. This was sudden, and, while conditions were expected, they were not expected until later, and Fair staff were in frequent contact with the NWS. It’s sad, yes. Preventable? Possibly, but I also think it could have been much worse.

—–

I was about to post the above when I saw another blog commentary about how the concert operators and fairgrounds should be held responsible, and that venue operators should have adequate places for people to go well in advance of storms arriving at such events.  It’s all good intentioned to call for such measures.  Good luck coming up with the logistics for getting such large numbers of people moved in a short time and constructing such shelters.  How do you move 18,000 people to safety in a domed stadium if a tornado warning is issued?

Originally published at Abnormality Locality. You can comment here or there.

Comments

[krasota.livejournal.com]

And let's be serious. Indiana. August. Temporary structures. If I were out in that, knowing weather was on the way, I'd seek shelter without being told. I mean--LOOK UP. Hello. If you live in Indiana for more than a few years, you know what imminent bad weather looks and feels like.

Adults really must take responsibility for themselves.

[lightning-rose.livejournal.com]

I was going to ask you for your comment, so thanks. :)

When I heard the gust described as "unpredictable", my first reaction was, "Yeah. Right. A 60 mph gust in tornado country is not just predictable, but darn near a sure thing, given enough time."

I'm too far removed, and too ignorant of all the factors to assign blame, but I'm surprised the state fairgrounds don't have a permanent stage.

[quasigeostrophy.livejournal.com]

The stage isn't permanent because the grandstand is primarily for the large dirt (actually sand) track. Some of the foundation bits are there, but the rest of the construction is usually put up by the concert promoter and/or band.

A 60 mph gust in tornado country is not just predictable, but darn near a sure thing, given enough time.

Except when it isn't. :-) Watching the radar loop, I saw a gust front appear on the radar, right around the time the main storm had reached the fairgrounds, so said front was farther east by the time it was visible on radar.

[djinnthespazz.livejournal.com]

We've gotten so much better at predictions and spotting. The last time I was at a State Fair? Over thirty years ago? Eyes on the skies would have been the only warning.

Funny how angry people get over their improved technologies.